National Interest: Azerbaijan’s Military Superiority and Armenia’s Weak Position in Air Warfare Analyzed

An article titled “Here’s Why Armenia Can’t Win an Air War Against Azerbaijan”, written by security analyst Harrison Kass and published in the influential US magazine The National Interest, provides a detailed analysis of Azerbaijan’s military superiority.

Faktxeber.az reports that researcher and journalist Elbey Hasanli highlighted the article, emphasizing the analysis of Azerbaijan’s modern military capabilities.

“The author considers the Second Karabakh War one of the key events that changed the nature of modern warfare. According to him, Azerbaijan’s use of unmanned aerial vehicles, kamikaze drones, and electronic warfare systems became one of the first examples of a new military model that was later also observed in the Ukraine war.

The article notes that Azerbaijan has rebuilt its armed forces in recent years based on modern technologies produced by Türkiye and Israel. Systems such as the Bayraktar TB2 and Harop loitering munitions have become central elements of Azerbaijan’s combat strategy. Meanwhile, Armenia continues to rely largely on Soviet-era military doctrines and outdated air defense systems.

Harrison Kass writes that Azerbaijan’s advantage is not only based on the number of weapons. The main difference lies in military thinking and strategy. While Baku has built a modern warfare approach based on unmanned systems, precision strikes, continuous surveillance, and electronic warfare, Armenia has struggled to fully move away from traditional air combat concepts.

The author also highlights Azerbaijan’s economic and demographic advantages. With a population of approximately 10.7 million and greater economic potential, Azerbaijan has been able to allocate more resources to defense development. In addition, strategic military cooperation with Türkiye and Israel further strengthens Baku’s capabilities.

The article’s conclusion is clear. The author argues that unless there is significant external military intervention, Armenia’s chances of gaining superiority in a new air war against Azerbaijan would be extremely limited. Azerbaijan’s drone-based modern military model provides it with the ability to achieve air superiority in a short period of time.

In fact, the article is not only about Azerbaijan and Armenia. It also reflects a broader approach emerging in the West. The 2020 Karabakh War is no longer viewed merely as a local conflict but as an example demonstrating a new model of 21st-century warfare. According to the author, this model was later reflected on the battlefield in Ukraine and significantly influenced the development of modern military strategies,” he stated.